Fit-or-fold, a textual postflop stat, what do you think?

[PeteX]

Got an idea for this from the IF-statement (showing X with small number of hands instead of the actual value) at Kraadas advanced hud.

So, I thought that rather than looking at numbers on a Hud and trying to figure out how to adjust my play based on them, I though that why not create a textual stat that shows you immediately on with one look some sort of exploitation possibility on a villain? That is, NO NUMBER at all, but a few letter textual note.

Here is what I did:
- Created a custom stat named "Fit-or-Fold". The purpose of this stat is to utilize the folds at flop/turn/river stats to indicate the tendency of the player to "fit-or-fold" on a given street.
- The value expression is set to 0 (YES, it is ZERO).
- The format (here is the beef!) is set as

Code: Select all

if (cnt_f_fold / cnt_f_saw > 0.35, 'FoF!',
if (cnt_f_fold / cnt_f_saw > 0.3, 'FoFf',
if (cnt_t_fold / cnt_t_saw > 0.25, 'FoFt',
if (cnt_r_fold / cnt_r_saw > 0.25, 'FoFr', ''))))

Then I defined four color ranges like this:
"cnt_r_saw < 10" is set as red
"10 <= cnt_r_saw AND cnt_r_saw < 30" is set as yellow
"30 <= cnt_r_saw AND cnt_r_saw < 50" is set as blue
"50 <= cnt_r_saw" is set as green.

The purpose of the coloring is to show me how reliable the number is. So, if the player has seen river >50 times, then he has also seen flops and turns at least enough times and the text should be pretty reliable.

Try this. Test the stat at the Player Summary-table, add it as a column and see what you get!

On a hud, the idea is to see
- "FoF!" next to a player who folds more than 35% on the flop
- "FOFf" next to a player who folds more than 30% on the flop
- "FoFt" next to a player who folds more than 25% on the turn
- "FoFr" next to a player who folds more than 25% on the river
- "" (nothing) next to a player -> He is not a "fit-or-fold" player.

These figures are calibrated to short NL games. I just looked at the values from a datamined database with players having > 1000 hands and just looked for some threshold that is somewhat on the high side, leaving a small number of players above it. That way those players really should be exploitable.

So, when I now see a player with FoF! showing next to his seat, I'll know that this player folds way too much when compared to most of the players on short NL games.

I've done similar stats for preflop usage and will do some more for postflop usage. My idea is to have about ~10 different abbreviations by each seat (with small font) and calibrate them so that against a winning TAG/ABC-player I will have pretty much no abbreviations visible as he is a good player and not really exploitable. But when a player has some exploitable tendency, there will be a short abbreaviation showing by his seat and the more abbreviations there are, the more situations there are that can be used to exploit him.

Any comments? What sort of "exploitation stats" do you think would be useful?

[kraada]

Interesting stat idea, I'll have to think about that one. I'd have to think a bit about the specific numbers, but these sorts of stats should work properly, and from the way you've described it, it sounds like you've defined it properly as well.

I'd been building a couple of stats in a similar fashion for my latest HUD revision, but it uncovered a bug and so those stats didn't get released.

Once that bug is fixed, I'll go ahead and release those stats (they are "minraises 2p+" and "overplays tptk-")

[PeteX]

Here is another one I made, "Folds to 3Bet".

So put this to Format-section of the custom stat:

Code: Select all

if ((cnt_p_3bet_def_action_fold_when_open_raised / cnt_p_3bet_def_opp_when_open_raised)  > 0.7 AND
(cnt_steal_reraise_def_action_fold / cnt_steal_reraise_def_opp) > 0.7 , 'F3B',
if ((cnt_p_3bet_def_action_fold_when_open_raised / cnt_p_3bet_def_opp_when_open_raised)  > 0.7, 'F3Bns',
if ((cnt_steal_reraise_def_action_fold / cnt_steal_reraise_def_opp) > 0.7, 'F3Bs' ,'')))

Note how it combines the stealing and non-stealing situations on one text.
So, when player is folding to 3bet > 70% on both non-steal and steal situations, then "F3B" is shown. And when he only folds >70% to 3bets on non-stealing then F3Bns is shown and the same for stealing situations, F3Bs is shown. So when I see a player with F3B beside him raising -> Invitation to 3bet with any two cards... ;)

I have calibrated the 70% figure again for Short NL by looking at the player summary and 70% looked like a good figure, leaving most players under it and putting perhaps 5-10% of the players above it, so they should be very exploitable.

[WhiteRider]

That sounds good!
If you want to share these (or any other) stats with other PT3 users, you can upload them to the Repository.

[R3mbrandt]

Very nice idea!
I like it!! :D

R3mbrandt