reviewing my All-in EV hands

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reviewing my All-in EV hands

Postby seadog » Tue Dec 06, 2011 3:33 am

Appologize in advance if asked already. I understand all-in equity and how it's calculated.
Looking through the hands that are 50BBs-100BBs loss. 86% were played in accordance to poker law. :ugeek: Equity was warranted.
24% of the time played bad. cry calls, bluffs, squeeze gone bad, blah blah blah
My money expected shows a 90 buy-n deficit. Where My graph confirms this, my net amt won
should be no less then 40 buy-ins loss. The extra 50 buy-in lost are from bad luck,(downswing)???
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Re: reviewing my All-in EV hands

Postby kraada » Tue Dec 06, 2011 9:28 am

You can't use those stats in this kind of report - it won't give you good results.

Consider it like this:

Say you get all-in preflop in 10 coin flip situations - your cards, for the moment, don't matter. You lose the expected 5 of them.

Having lost 5 hands you later go filter for big losses. You find all 5 big losses. Looking at the EV graph you'll see your expected line higher than your actual line - why? Because in this case we're looking at 5 coin flips - you'd expect to win 2.5 of them and you lost all 5. But this is not the whole picture - you did win 5 coin flips, you just had filtered them out.

I hope that clarifies things for you a bit.
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